The Memo - 8/Mar/2024

Claude 3 updates, Inflection-2.5, Sergey interview, and much more!

To:      US Govt, major govts, Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Citi, Tencent, IBM, & 10,000+ more recipients…
From:    Dr Alan D. Thompson <LifeArchitect.ai>
Sent:    8/Mar/2024
Subject: The Memo - AI that matters, as it happens, in plain English
AGI:     71%

Dr Demis Hassabis, Google DeepMind founder (24/Feb/2024):
’[With AGI,] suddenly the nature of money even changes… I don’t know if company constructs would even be the right thing to think about… We don’t want to have to wait till the eve before AGI happens… we should be preparing for that now.’

The Memo reader Tom asked to see the exact prompts I use for testing large language models.

Update Apr/2024: I’ve released these behind a password-protect page at:

https://lifearchitect.ai/ALprompt/

Here's a recent video timecode link of my 2024 H1 prompt being run against Claude 3 Opus. I also use the Meta AI GAIA prompts—two in particular—and you can see all the highest Level 3 GAIA prompts here.

Note that I don’t subscribe to the idea of measuring model performance with ‘vibe’… that’s just silly. Given my extensive background in designing and administering test suites for high cognitive ability (IQ 145+, in the 99.9th percentile) during my time as Chairman of Mensa’s gifted families—and the rigour necessary to ensure that final scores were reliable and comparable—it’s tiring to see ‘experts’ relying on ‘vibes’ rather than accessible norm-referenced measures.

This is another very long edition, with an entire section for many recent humanoid updates. Since we started, The Memo has had a section at the very end—after The BIG Stuff, The Interesting Stuff, Policy, Toys to Play With, and Flashback—called Next which is a space for me to discuss model schedules and upcoming AI releases. Let’s bring this forward, just for this edition.

Here’s my AI forecast calendar for the rest of 2024, starting with GPT-5 which should have started training before Dec/2023 (OpenAI CEO under oath 16/May/2023: ‘We are not currently training what will be GPT-5; we don’t have plans to do it in the next six months [to 16/Nov/2023]’), and so 120 days later would be due to complete that training next Friday 15 March 2024. For safety, I expect the GPT-5 public release date to be after the November 2024 US elections.

2024 AI forecast calendar:
March: GPT-5 trained to convergence for 120d, end Fri 15/March/2024
April: GPT-4.5 released with safety, Gemini 1.5 Ultra ready
May: Amazon Olympus 2T ready
June: AuroraGPT (ScienceGPT research model) ready
July: Meta AI Llama 3 released
August: Google DeepMind Gemini 2 ready
September: 1X NEO humanoid in more factories and some homes
October: US elections 5/Nov/2024, no major releases
November: US elections 5/Nov/2024, no major releases
December: GPT-5 released
2025…

The BIG Stuff

Inflection-2.5 (8/Mar/2024)

Inflection AI (founded by CEO Mustafa Suleyman, who was also a co-founder of Google DeepMind) has released Inflection-2.5, a smarter version of their empathic chatbot. Inflection-2.5 was trained with more than 5,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs, one of the first models to use this chip. We explored some context of the earlier Inflection-2 model in The Memo edition 23/Nov/2023.

Now we are adding IQ to Pi’s exceptional EQ… approaches GPT-4’s performance, but used only 40% of the amount of compute for training… An average conversation with Pi lasts 33 minutes and one in ten lasts over an hour each day.

While this is the best chat-specific model available as of March 2024, Inflection’s focus on conversation means that Inflection-2.5 has lower overall performance than frontier models like GPT-4, Gemini, and Claude 3. The extended prompting score for MMLU=85.5 (GPT-4=87.3), and Google’s BIG-bench hard=82.2 (GPT-4=83.1).

Read the release: https://inflection.ai/inflection-2-5

Try it via pi.ai (free, no login): https://pi.ai/talk

See it on the Models Table: https://lifearchitect.ai/models-table/

Financial Sense interview (Mar/2024)

Here’s my latest interview about Sora, Mistral, Microsoft, and BMIs. These interviews are part of a premium Financial Sense membership, and I’m grateful to Cris and team for allowing me to share them all (complete list back to pre-ChatGPT Apr/2022) with full subscribers here at The Memo.